Here is basketball truth: The game always purifies itself, in the way that flowing rivers do the same. If I were a still a player, I would be preparing myself to beat the best in the East, rather than joining them. After the Boston series, I was under-impressed with James. The way he played did not remind one of Jordan, West, Havlicek, Bryant, Roberston, et al...these guys-- they would have never quit. James, as I recall his performance in this year's playoff run, is cut from a different cloth. Going to the Heat gives him an 'out' if they don't win-- the 'explanation' can be spread over three players and he doesn't have to absorb the brunt of failure. Perhaps the pressure of being in Cleveland- and all of the history of the tenuous relationship. between that town and professional sports-- was simply too much for him.
82 games is a long season. I remember -- when the Lakers added Wilt Chamberlain to the mix of Jerry West and Elgin Baylor. (No, they didn't win.) Basketball is a game of synergy--where the whole must be 'greater than the sum of the parts.' Just having three great players doesn't guarantee a championship--the chances go up exponentially with a great coach and a great point guard.
But rest assured, you cannot win in the Association without shooters on the perimeter and remarkable PG play. The resurgence of the C's in the year they won was as much about the play of Rondo as the 'big three.' The Cavs demise this year was, to a great degree, about not having quality, consistent PG play.
Miami doesn't have a PG-- and that shall be a problem in the post season of 2010/11. Aggregate scores decrease in the playoffs and that means PG play has to be exceptional. Think about ATL in the post-season...no team leadership in the backcourt. And Orlando's back court got outplayed by Boston's.
Now, look at the West-- what kind of PG play occurred from the last two teams (Lakers and Suns....Fisher and Nash) Fisher, though not possessing great numbers, provides quality, substantial leadership and timely 'shot making' late in games. Nash, even at 35, is dominant.
Someone must 'Captain' the ship and that emanates from the PG. Examine the last 15 NBA championships and look at the PGs-- then ask, do the Heat have a player of this capacity at that position.
And, the last point I want to make is about role players. The year the C's won--the so-called big three (Allen, Garnett, Pierce) were helped along immeasurably by Eddie House and James Posey.. And, does anyone remember someone named Robert Horry who just came off the bench and did heroic things for Los Angeles.
Winning a championship at any level of basketball is Herculean; and, moreover, without excellent PG play, I bet against the Heat. The non-students of the game opine that Wade can play PG-- I don't see it as a successful proposition over a full season. And, James, primarily played 'Point Forward' in the Cavs scheme--which, to me, didn't make a lot of sense.
Regardless of what James, Bosh/Wade do or not do, the Celtics, Magic and Bulls are going to be very tough to beat....one must not 'sleep' on any team with Derrick Rose at PG. The Bulls have signed Korver and Boozer-- trust me, they are not going quietly, nor gently into that good night. And, look at the Bucks-- an excellent backcourt (Jennings and Salmons), with a fine scorer returning ( Redd) and a top notch center who is a 'double/double guy) Borgut.
The Eastern Conference Championship game next year could be Orlando/ Milwaukee. I think one can safely say Miami will probably be a one or two seed in the East next season...(Miami, Chicago, Boston as the top three seeds) That leaves Orlando, Milwaukee-- and, down a bit, Atlanta and Charlotte.) So, the Heat will be in a second round series against, probably, Boston or Orlando. Miami may not emerge from the 2nd round.
As for the West, I think that the Thunder will be the biggest threat to the Lakers getting back to the NBA Finals. The addition of Blake and Barnes make the Lakers an even tougher defensive team with more scoring punch. But Oklahoma City--with Durant and Westbrook-- are going to make life difficult for the Western Conference teams.
The Heat: I am not a believer unless they get a real PG-- Chalmers and Arroyo aren't getting them to the NBA Finals.